Triple Tightrope Walk — How the AI Bubble Pops
Economic stability rests on three balances - frontier AI development against adoption, productivity against unemployment, and the datacenter buildout against local models.
Blog
Essays on AI, energy, and national success — and where they intersect.
AI in Life, Work, and Energy — Perspectives on where AI is taking individuals, companies, and the grid
How individuals and companies should think about AI and why the cost of using it converges with the cost of electricity.
Red Sky at Night — Positioning for the Future
A national security strategy for an AI-driven future: wars won by production capacity, a National Economic Strategy, and energy as a new tool of national power.
Red Sky in the Morning — Predictions for the Future
An analysis of the future international operating environment, considering current U.S. strategy, foresight research, and the transformative effects of AI and automation.
The Role of Energy in AI at Scale
The marginal cost of AI inference converges on the price of electricity. Demand scales exponentially, the grid linearly, and China is building power faster.
Winning the Next War
Great-power competition will be decided by electricity, not chips: China's power surplus can run an AI and robotics flywheel the strained US grid cannot match.
United States, Inc.
A high-level strategic analysis of U.S. competitiveness and recommendations for building strategies for the future.
An Update on US-China Trade
US-China trade, 1784 to 2024: the post-WTO import surge and the China Shock, the 2022 peak and 2023 decline, and the policy response from tariffs to the CHIPS Act.
Reinforcing Critical Supply Chains
A strategic analysis of U.S. supply chain vulnerabilities and recommendations for enhancing critical supply chain security.